Triggers Weekly (June 20 -July 03)

Triggers Weekly 2 Triggers Weekly (June 20  July 03)

Trigger for the Week

How will it impact?

  • Recoveries from Coronavirus exceed fresh afflictions
  • Despite daily COVID numbers crossing 18,000 per day, the net accretion is now negative and that is good
  • Nifty may come under pressure after the 36% rally since Mar-20
  • The rally implies that most medium term upsides may be priced in and further direction may be flat to negative
  • The tapering of the border tensions could be a market positive
  • Diplomatic talks on the China border issue appear to be making progress and reduces geopolitical risk
  • Pharma companies may be the focus as COVID race continues
  • The markets will be watching pharma companies like Serum, Cipla and Jubilant for COVID research cues
  • Unlock 2.0 kicks off from the last week of June
  • The Unlock 2.0 is predicates on the success of Unlock 1.0 but the time frame of lockdown could be extended
  • Good monsoons may be a boost for Kharif output this year
  • Monsoons have been well spread and abundant and that hints at lower food inflation going ahead
  • The latest phase of lockdown ends in June, and July will be critical
  • Unless the lockdown stays in key states, the business operations for corporates should be back on track
  • Quarterly results deadline extended by one month to July 31
  • This could be a compliance boost for Indian business and we await ONGC, Vodafone, BEL, MRF, ICRA, SAIL etc
  • The week will see the June auto sales being announced
  • The focus will continue to be on two-wheelers and the tractor segment to drive growth in Q1 Jun-21
  • The PMI manufacturing and services will be out this week
  • This will be the first indication of manufacturing and services sector showing signs of a bounce back
  • Current account number to be announced on Jun 30th
  • A positive current account balance will be a boost for economic reforms and also for value of the rupee
  • Call option OI gets spread across 10,500 and 11,000 Nifty levels
  • These are the calls showing accumulation and could extend the Nifty rally all the way to 11,000 levels
  • Nifty technical levels are close to long term support levels
  • If 10,500 is held this week, then the Nifty could travel closer to the 11,000 mark soon
  • Key macro data points at the global front are due this week
  • FOMC minutes and jobs data in the US and inflation and economic jobs data in the EU hold the key

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